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The ringing telephone finally penetrated the exhaustion produced deafness that had come over the President when she had retired three hours earlier. Shaking herself awake, the President was momentarily confused about her surroundings, realizing where she was when she heard Anna Escrito's voice saying, "Madame President, you left instructions for me to wake you at 5:00."
"Thank You, Anna. Any important messages?"
"We have just received a message from the Russian Embassy. They will have a personal message for you from their president about 10:00 this evening."
"I've been expecting that. 10:00 sounds good. Contact the War Cabinet, everyone who was here earlier this afternoon, and have them here by 9:15. I would like to review the situation before the meeting with the Russian Ambassador."
"Will everyone be here for the dinner at 6:00?" asked the President.
"Yes."
"Anything else of importance?"
"Not really. Just a few updates on the Middle East and Europe, but nothing earth shattering."
"Good. As long as it's not too serious, I can wait for that until later this evening. I've got to get going so I can be ready for that 6:00 meeting. Thanks for the wake up call."
"You're welcome. Is there anything else?"
"No, once you've reached the War Cabinet you can go home if you want."
"Thank you Madame President. If you need me for anything, I'll be home. My number is in my rolodex."
"All right. I'll see you tomorrow."
As she stepped into the shower, Kathleen Lehrer's mind began to focus on the evening ahead of her. She was going to have a crash course in international finance and how the United States and the rest of the world had found themselves in the mess in which they currently stood. She hoped they would be able to stave off the collapse of the entire economy, but of that she was not certain, particularly because of the chain of events, of which she was currently unaware, that had been set into motion in the neighbor to the south. Those events, and the repercussions that would arise from them, would occupy much of her attention over the next few weeks.
At two minutes before 6:00, Kathleen Lehrer, the first woman and the first Cabinet member to succeed to the Presidency under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, entered the private dining room for a working dinner with the acting Secretaries of State, Treasury, Commerce and Agriculture, the Director of O.M.B., Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, and the head of the World Bank. The Chairman of the International Monetary Fund was in Brazil, trying to stave off a default of the second largest debtor nation, whose loans were due at the end of the following week.
President Lehrer was introduced to each of the participants. She then took her place at the head of the table and motioned for each of the others to be seated. She placed a spiral bound notebook on the table and addressed the assembled financiers.
"Gentlemen, I would like to thank you all for coming. Would anyone like a drink?"
The President, Secretary of State, and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve ordered a glass of white wine, the Secretary of the Treasury ordered a glass of Chivas Regal, the Secretary of Commerce had a bourbon and water, the Secretary of Agriculture had a beer and the head of the World Bank ordered a club soda. Once they had their drinks, they ordered their dinners, and the President began.
"As you probably know, I am a teacher. Part of being a teacher is being a student. Tonight, I am your student. Over the course of the next two and one half hours, I would like a crash course in international finance and banking so that we can figure out how we arrived at our current state of affairs. Who would like to start?"
James Courie from the Federal Reserve began speaking.
"Many of the financial problems that we face today can be traced back to Lyndon Johnson's attempts to pay for the Vietnam War and his War on Poverty without a tax increase. This resulted in deficits and set the stage for the inflation that took hold in the early 70s because the U.S. government began printing more and more money in order to pay its bills. Because of that, the dollar weakened in relationship to gold and to other currencies. By 1971, it was evident that the Bretton Woods system of a set dollar price for gold came apart."
"What exactly was Bretton Woods?" interjected the President.
"In 1944, the finance ministers of the major economic powers met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to come up with a post-war economic system. Gold was set at a fixed rate of $35.00 an ounce and the dollar was the central currency for international trade. The first cracks in that system became evident when the British drastically devalued the pound in 1967 because the strong pound made British goods too expensive on the international markets. The Bretton Woods system finally collapsed when President Nixon took the United States off the gold standard in 1971."
The discussion went on from there with Mitchell Stroach from the Office of Management and Budget explaining to the President how a series of economic blunders by succeeding Presidents, including Nixon's wage and price freeze and his stimulation of the economy until after he was safely reelected, Ford's abortive Whip Inflation Now policy, followed by a stimulatory fiscal policy when unemployment became too high in an election year, the easy money policies during the first part of Carter's term, followed by tight monetary policy by the Fed to lower the double digit inflation that resulted from that led to the deepest recession since the Depression, the massive deficits from Reagan's tax cuts, which resulted in the United States becoming the greatest debtor nation in history, the increasing deficits that arose from the massive recession in the early 1990s, and the uncertain economic conditions which had been present ever since as a result of attempts at reform to reduce the deficit with the Congress kicking and screaming the whole time, resulting in half way measures at best being taken, and only incremental progress being made to reduce the federal debt, to the present time, with the whole international economy now on the brink of collapse.
Secretary of Agriculture Ralph Baker explained how the steep declines in commodity prices wiped out many farmers who could not stay in business when the prices they could get from their crops were lower than what it cost them to grow them, and how that put increased pressure on the banks in those parts of the country.
Nicholas Moneda from the World Bank then explained how the massive increases in oil prices combined with the greed of many bankers in the 70s led many oil producing countries to borrow huge amounts of money for development. When the prices of oil collapsed in the 80s, these countries found themselves unable to repay their loans. This problem first became evident to the lenders in 1982 when Mexico renegotiated the terms of its loans and other debtor nations followed suit. These were only patchwork solutions at best, with the debtors borrowing more in exchange for longer time periods for repayment. As time went on, it became more and more evident that these loans would never be repaid, with many of the larger lenders beginning to set aside larger reserves against the day that that would happen. Unfortunately, those reserves would not be sufficient to protect the banks from a total collapse should there be massive defaults on top of each other, as would become evident in the weeks ahead.
By 8:45 that evening, President Lehrer understood why many of the people in the room with her either had ulcers, or soon would have them. She now understood why they were at the present crossroads, but at this point she was not sure which way to turn. It appeared that no matter what she did, the situation would worsen a lot more before it improved. The only question now was which alternative would cause the least suffering while leading to the long-term improvements that would be necessary if the world was going to emerge from the abyss. It was not an enviable position in which to be.
As the President and her acting Secretary of State walked toward the Oval Office, he complimented her on the meal.
The President replied, "I've only had a few meals here so far, but I've learned that anything the Chef makes will be absolutely delicious. Chefs don't come any better than the one I have here."
"That's for sure," replied Ted Reynolds.
"What do you think the odds are of a major debtor nation defaulting?" asked President Lehrer, changing the subject to what was on her mind.
"I think the odds are a little better than fifty-fifty within the next six months. The Depression is widening and the supply of oil is sure to fall over the next year or so due to damage caused in the last day or so. That is going to mean higher prices, which will help oil producers such as Mexico or Venezuela, but is going to make it much more difficult for countries who are dependent on foreign oil. Countries such as Brazil or Argentina are fairly industrialized but are dependent on imported oil if those industries are to run. Historically, their governments have not been the most stable in the world, and there have been riots and demonstrations in both countries over terms imposed upon them in return for more loans. I have a feeling that one of them will be the first to default. I just hope like hell that it does not cause a chain reaction that brings down the whole system. If that happens, we will have some serious problems."
"That is probably an understatement," replied the President, as they arrived at the Oval Office.
The President began looking at the messages that had accumulated on her desk during the time that she had been away from it. She also was pleased to see the five page briefing reports she had requested from the executive departments sitting on a pile on the side of her desk. She would begin reading those after the meeting with the Russian Ambassador.
By ten minutes after 9:00, the War Cabinet had assembled in the Oval Office to begin talking about what their response to the Russian President's letter would be. By 9:55, they decided that they would be noncommittal while the Russian Ambassador was there, but that they would have a response within the next day or two.
At precisely 10:00, the Russian Ambassador was ushered into the Oval Office and introduced to the President and her advisers. He then handed President Lehrer the letter from Russian President Alexandrov. The President opened it and read the contents.
Dear Madame President,
It appears that we are now fighting a common enemy. Troops under the command of Iranian leaders attacked targets in southwestern Russia, as well as in several republics of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics with whom we have mutual defense treaties. Our forces are in the process of repelling the aggressors. We have incontrovertible proof that these attacks were launched under the guidance of the religious fanatic who leads Iran and are controlled by him. We will not rest until he has been punished.
In light of the attacks made by Iran against both of our nations, an unprecedented opportunity exists to improve relations between Russia and the United States of America. Our goal is not to annex Iran or any part of Iran. Our country is large enough and such a move by either your country or ours would only serve to upset the balance of power between us. We do insist upon secure borders and we must remove this threat to our security.
It is the hope of the leaders of Russia that we will be able to work together in our common struggle against the Iranian religious fanatics. Before this occurs, however, an agreement must be reached on issues of concern to both of our nations. On behalf of the Russian government, I would like to make the following proposals:
1. Agreements and treaties already in effect between Russia and the United States of America will remain in effect, subject to amendments upon the agreement of both sides.
2. Neither Russia nor the United States of America will maintain a permanent army of occupation in territories that were not subject to their control before January 18, 1998. Forces of both countries will be withdrawn within six months of the cessation of hostilities, being replaced by a permanent United Nations peace keeping force following the withdrawal.
3. The mutually verifiable freeze on the deployment of nuclear weapons and a nuclear test ban will remain in effect. Negotiations to reduce the quantity of nuclear weapons throughout the world will continue.
4. Efforts by Russia and the United States of America to reduce the number of conventional forces will continue, with those reductions taking place following the cessation of hostilities with Iran.
5. Russia and the United States of America will expand contacts in medical research, space research and exploration, scientific research, cultural affairs, and other areas to be agreed upon. The goal of these expanded contacts will be to help both countries in their research efforts for the benefit of the people of the Earth.
6. Discussions about the coordination of U.S. and Russian forces against Iran will begin as soon as possible.
As you can see, these proposals are very reasonable and are in the best interests of both of our countries. Improved relations and the subsequent reduction in tensions that would engender are dependent upon better communications between our two peoples. It is the hope of the Russian government that we can improve relations with your country in order to accomplish our common goal of making the world a safer and more peaceful place.
Very Cordially Yours,
Vladimir Alexandrov
President,
Russian Republic
"That's a hell of a letter," commented Secretary of State Ted Reynolds. "The proposals that President Alexandrov has put forward seem reasonable and statesmanlike. I agree with him that since we are in this together, we must coordinate our forces in order to avoid accidentally attacking each other. I think we should explore this further."
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